On this episode of the China in the World podcast recorded on June 14, 2023, Paul Haenle spoke with Amy Chew, an independent Malaysia-based journalist, and Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, about China-Russia relations and the war in Ukraine. A portion of their conversation, which has been edited and condensed for clarity, is below.
Paul Haenle: From your vantage point, what is your sense of what Chinese officials might believe around whether the Western alliance will hold in maintaining unified support for Ukraine?
Amy Chew: China sees the war in Ukraine through the prism of its rivalry with the collective West. Sending a special representative to Kyiv and other capitals was sort of a reconnaissance mission to see how strong Euro-Atlantic unity is, not just when it comes to Ukraine but when it comes to China. Breaking this unity is China’s main strategic objective. It’s a critical factor to secure further growth of its influence in Europe by playing off the differences between NATO allies.
China is worried about [Russian President Vladimir] Putin. They don’t want him to fall. Even limited success of Ukraine’s counteroffensive could trigger destabilization in Russia. There could be infighting between the Chechen military, the Wagner Group, the FSB—complete chaos. Once the boss is weak, all these different groups could go after him.
China believes that only Putin can keep things under control. Putin is the only person who can contain and balance the rivalry between the FSB, the Chechens, the Defense Ministry, and the Wagner Group. For now, Putin is in control. I believe China wants it to stay that way. Even though Putin is internationally isolated, he is a comfortable partner for China in its strategic quest against the collective West.
Alexander Gabuev: I very much side with Amy. I think China has a realistic view that Russia and Ukraine are miles apart when it comes to talking about any final resolution of this conflict. The Ukrainian ask is for the restoration of the 1991 borders, reparations, and accountability for war criminals. Russia wants to settle for nothing less than either Ukraine under Russian control or Ukraine destroyed. China knows that this is a very difficult gap to bridge.
China needs to imitate a diplomatic process in order to present itself, particularly to Europe and the developing world, as not backing Russia. It is normal for China to maintain productive ties with Russia, increase trade, and even play a role in Russia’s military-industrial complex supply chain. But this is balanced by China’s outreach to Ukraine and to its friends in the West. China is the only permanent member of the UN Security Council that is trying to bring about peace at a time when Russia is fighting this war and the West is providing weapons to Ukraine.
The results have been somewhat mixed in China’s attempt to present an image of neutrality. I don't think that anyone in Europe is completely convinced.
China could be worried about Putin. Their objective is to keep him or somebody similar to him in power. The system needs to be intact in order for Russia to be a comfortable and predictable partner for China, and China needs friends.
If the view in Beijing is that it has entered an era of prolonged confrontation with the United States, there is nothing that China can do absent basically capitulating—China throws away its technological ambitions; [Chinese President] Xi Jinping steps down; [and] it introduces partial democratization, particularly in Hong Kong. Absent those actions, China’s view is that the Americans want to bring China down. And that is something China cannot accept.
The West relies on a group of allies and friends. China needs partners too. Russia is a very strong partner that can bring a lot to the table. It is a like-minded, permanent member of the UN Security Council. It is still a formidable military power, particularly if one considers the Russian nuclear arsenal. It can also bring some limited technological assets to the table when it comes to the military, such as surface-to-air missiles or nuclear-powered submarines. It has a huge endowment of natural resources. China is interested in keeping Russia as it is: sanctioned, hostile to the West, and deeply in China’s embrace.