Content Syndicationhttps://carnegieendowment.org/rss/ https://carnegieendowment.org/rss/ http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile-ak-snc4/174859_62935143720_1836682_n.jpg Thursday, 06 Apr 2023 04:00:00 EST https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/89466?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Beijing's economic policymakers largely accept that China must rebalance its economy so that growth is driven more by domestic consumption and less by investment. But once China begins to take seriously the need to rebalance its economy, China's annual GDP growth is unlikely to exceed 2–3 percent for many years, unless there is a substantial increase in the growth rate of consumption. ]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/89466?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Thursday, 06 Apr 2023 04:00:00 EST China, East Asia, Economy, Emerging Economies, Global Trade https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/88829?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Policies are not “protectionist” because they violate WTO trade rules. They are protectionist if they distort global trade by generating beggar-thy-neighbor trade surpluses. Because large, persistent trade imbalances would be all but impossible in a well-functioning global trading system, the irony is that U.S. policies to reduce its deficit actually enhance free trade.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/88829?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Wednesday, 18 Jan 2023 02:12:57 EST Americas, United States, Economy, Global Trade https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/88098?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss China's large structural trade surpluses are the consequence of internal economic imbalances, which means that any external pressure that results in a contraction of its trade surplus must be accommodated by shifts in these internal imbalances.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/88098?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Thursday, 06 Oct 2022 10:35:48 EST China Financial Markets, Resources, China, East Asia, Economy https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/87751?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss In the first half of this two-part blog post, I discussed the problems affecting four rural banks in Henan and the subsequent mortgage boycott in parts of China. In the second half, I argue that these crises need to be seen not as isolated events but rather as signs of systemic problems that reveal a great deal about China's finances and balance sheet.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/87751?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Wednesday, 24 Aug 2022 07:47:44 EST China, East Asia, Economic Instability, Economy, Emerging Economies https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/87664?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss The Chinese economy has been wracked by rural bank defaults and boycotts over mortgage payments. In the first half of this two-part blog post, I will explain these events and what they reveal about the health of Chinese markets. In the second part, I will discuss some of the crisis's systemic implications.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/87664?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Friday, 12 Aug 2022 04:00:00 EST China, East Asia, Economic Instability, Economy, Emerging Economies https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/87007?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss There is increasingly a consensus in Beijing that China's excessive reliance on surging debt in recent years has made the country's growth model unsustainable. Aside from the economy's current path, there are only four other paths China can follow, each with its own requirements and constraints.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/87007?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Wednesday, 27 Apr 2022 02:16:36 EST China, East Asia, Economy https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/86878?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Giving up use of the U.S. dollar for global trade and reserve accumulation would be very difficult for U.S. adversaries and would require major economic adjustments, though it would be in the best long-term interests of the United States for the global use of the dollar to be more constrained.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/86878?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Tuesday, 12 Apr 2022 04:31:45 EST Economy, Global Trade https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/86397?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Most economists have trouble understanding why too much debt may harm an economy, let alone how much debt counts as too much. To make matters worse, the common practice of comparing vastly different countries' debt-to-GDP levels is not a useful tool for gauging how a particular economy is likely to manage its debt burden.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/86397?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Tuesday, 08 Feb 2022 05:24:53 EST Economy https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/85571?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Chinese leaders know that they want to discontinue the country's existing growth model, but they haven't yet landed on what the sustainable alternatives are. Beijing's new common prosperity policy will only help shift domestic demand at the margins, but a full-fledged rebalancing will require a more radical transformation.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/85571?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Friday, 15 Oct 2021 04:00:00 EST China, East Asia https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/85391?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss The impact of Evergrande has caused financial distress to spread faster and more forcefully than Beijing's financial regulators expected, putting pressure on them to move quickly to stop the contagion. But they cannot rescue Evergrande's creditors without also undermining their fight against bad debt.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/85391?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Monday, 20 Sep 2021 04:00:00 EST China, East Asia, Economy https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/85179?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss The bezzle, a word coined in the 1950s by a Canadian-American economist, is the temporary gap between the perceived value of a portfolio of assets and its long-term economic value. Economies at times systematically create bezzle, unleashing substantial economic consequences that economists have rarely understood or discussed.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/85179?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Monday, 23 Aug 2021 04:00:00 EST Economy https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/83746?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss A recent study on U.S.-China trade concludes that Trump's trade policies cost the U.S. economy nearly a quarter million jobs. But its obsolete understanding of trade flows ends up pointing trade policymakers in the wrong direction. ]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/83746?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Thursday, 28 Jan 2021 10:17:12 EST Economy, Global Trade https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/83365?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss The idea that trade imbalances are more likely to be the result of credit imbalances than of savings imbalances ignores the role of savings imbalances in creating credit imbalances. When a surplus country demands to be paid for its trade surplus with claims on American assets, the U.S. economy must adjust to create these assets-and one of the most common ways it does so is by expanding credit.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/83365?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Tuesday, 01 Dec 2020 09:21:32 EST https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/82991?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss It is easy to assume that sovereign debt forgiveness involves a collective transfer of wealth from the creditor country to the debt-owing country, but this is only true under specific-and unrealistic-conditions. In today's environment, sovereign debt forgiveness mainly represents a transfer within the creditor country. It benefits farmers and manufacturers in the creditor country at the expense of the country's nonproductive savers.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/82991?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Monday, 19 Oct 2020 11:47:20 EST https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/82610?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss There is a widespread belief that a country's national debt burden is sustainable if the interest rate on its debt is less than its expected GDP growth rate. But, in fact, the relationship between interest rates and the GDP growth rate reveals more about the distribution of income in a country than about the sustainability of its debt.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/82610?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Monday, 31 Aug 2020 12:46:06 EST Economy https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/82362?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss It is a mistake to assume that there is a global capital and technology frontier toward which every country must strive to acquire development. Economic development requires, above all, the right set of formal and informal institutions. ]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/82362?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Friday, 24 Jul 2020 02:46:22 EST China, East Asia, Economy https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/81871?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss U.S. households will likely respond to the shocks of the pandemic by increasing their savings rates, as will foreign households. If the U.S. government does not decisively increase spending, higher American household savings will force either American debt or unemployment to rise even more.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/81871?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Thursday, 21 May 2020 01:54:49 EST Americas, United States, Economy, Political Reform, U.S. Domestic Politics https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/80622?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss The debate about whether it is U.S. consumers or Chinese businesses that pay for American tariffs on Chinese-produced goods reveals absolutely nothing about whether the tariffs harm or benefit the U.S. economy. ]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/80622?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Tuesday, 17 Dec 2019 10:12:41 EST Americas, China, East Asia, United States, Economy, Global Trade https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/80054?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss There are conditions under which governments can create money-or debt-without fear of inflation or excessive debt burdens. There are other conditions under which debt or money creation can lead to inflation and balance sheet problems.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/80054?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Friday, 11 Oct 2019 09:57:16 EST https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/79641?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Taxing capital inflows is a far better way to balance trade than imposing tariffs. This would address the root causes of trade imbalances, improve the productive investment process, and shift most of the adjustment costs onto banks and speculators.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/79641?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Tuesday, 06 Aug 2019 10:48:00 EST Economy, Global Trade